Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and India

NSG was formed in response to India's PNE (1974) in 1975 and was initially called London Club. Its aim was to manage export controls and nuclear proliferation issues which were outside the framework of NPT. Till 1991, NSG remained a dormant grouping. At the end of the Cold War, with the disintegration of the USSR, the threat of nuclear war was replaced with the threat of nuclear proliferation, which re energised the NSG to tackle those matters that were left out of the scope of NPT. The decision in the NSG are taken by consensus, making memberships difficult for new member states.

At the end of the Cold War, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan possessed weapons of Soviet era. Both  the USSR, through proactive diplomacy, and the US decided to de-arm them and made the the proliferation in Iran join the NPT as NEWS. Since 1991, with the advent of Gulf War-1, and situation of proliferation ir proliferation and North Korea, there was a growing belief that NPT is not sufficient to tackle nuclear proliferation The NSG made attempts to rectify such shortcomings of NPT. In order to reposition NSG as a se Gas a serious grouping to tackle nuclear proliferation and not merely position as a club, NSG in 1991 stated will not use member states as a term, which will be replaced with PGs. Subsequently, in 2001. a procedural arrangement' was adopted that talked about admitting a new PG to NSG. The procedure has five-point criteria.

1. State should have the ability to supply or produce items mentioned in the control list of NSG

2. State should adhere to the guidelines of NSG.

3. State should legally enforce the guidelines of NSG.

4. State should support global efforts to seek non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

5. State should adhere and comply with one or more obligations of the NPT.

It was clarified that the above points were only considerations to be used for membership and were not mandatory as a criteria. As part of an attempt to operationalise the India-US nuclear deal, in 2008, India was given NSG-specific waiver. In 2010, India expressed an interest to become a member of the NSG. From 2010 to 2016, there was a political and diplomatic void in India taking up the issue with the NSG. This was primarily out of concerns arising out of India's Civilian Liability for Nuclear Damages Act.

In 2016, when India made a formal attempt to join the NSG, after resolving the concerns in the liability law, its membership was blocked by China.

Why did China object or block Indian membership at NSG? 

China has raised certain concerns regarding Indian membership.

1. China asserted that there needs to be 'broader consensus' to evolve a technical, legal and polit criterion to admit new states to NSG as PG,

2. China asserted that let there be a two-step process for admitting a new PG to NSG. First, le First, let there be a formula developed for admission of non-NPT members to NSG. Second, after such a formie is developed and adopted, then NSG should admit new PG.

3. China asserts that in the absence of such a formula, there will be serious effects of admit us effects of admitting non NPT member states (like India) to NSG as PG as such states in NSG (without being a member of NPT) will affect the integrity of the non-proliferation architecture in the world. Indian strategic community believes that this is used by China as a cover to push the case for Pakistan along with India for admission to NSG.

Due to obstructive and non-cooperative attitude of China, Indian membership to the NSG remains a hurdle till date.

INF Treaty and India

In the 1980s, the USSR developed SS-20. It was missile which could carry three nuclear warheads. The USSR deployed the missile in Europe, The US countered the Soviet deployment with counter deployment of Pershing-II cruise missiles in Europe. This led to massive intenhent crisis between the US and the USSR, as the deployment of these intermediate-range missiles aggravated the nuclear arm race. 

                         SS-20 Missile

                    Pershing-][ cruise missile

Thus, to de escalate the crisis, in 1987, INF treaty was negotiated and signed by the US and the USSR. The treaty prohibited the deployment of land and ballistic missiles (ranging from 311 to 3420 miles). The treaty had nom of cruise missiles which could be deployed or launched from ships, submarines or planes.

               1987 INF Treaty was signed

                Missile banned by INF Treaty

The treaty was in the news in 2018 and 2019 where its trigger can be traced back to the 2014 Ukraine crisis. As per Obama administration and a report of the CIA, the Russians had deployed tactical nuclear weapons against those states of Europe that tilted towards the West. The US alleges that this w deliberately done by Russia to intimidate the European states. The US asserted that Russia violated the INF treaty by doing the deployment of SSC-8 land-based cruise missiles. 

The Trump administration, in 2018, announced a unilateral pullout from the treaty. The treaty now stands defunct, and this will have the following consequences.

1. The INF Treaty has limited the American ability to deploy weapons in South Asia. Now the US has no longer obligated to follow this preventive model in South Asia.

2. The US had been raising objections in the recent times that the INF treaty is imbalanced in representation and it does not include China, which apparently has been expanding its missile capabilities in the Pacific and Central Asia. It will now allow the US to focus on efforts to counter China in the Pacific as the US has been pressing that China should join the INF Treaty.

3. The unilateral American withdrawal is definitely going to spur a nuclear arms race of intermediate range ballistic missiles; but the bigger issue is that if the US deploys such missiles in South Asia (to counter China), how will India respond? India needs to mitigate the new challenge by investing in the development of hypersonic missiles.

              

India as a nuclear Triad

India commission INS Arihant in 2008,India completed the nuclear triad. Nuclear triad means capability of a state to launch a nuclear offensive from air, land and water (triad). The Indian Army has nuclear arsenal of ICBM category which ranges from Agni, Prithvi to Shaurya missiles. The Force uses Sukhoi-03 MKI, Jaguar and Rafale (once inducted later) for carrying nuclear weapons. Te Indian Navy has commissioned INS Arihant, designed on Russian Akula-1 class model, called as Shin Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN). India is the sixth country in the world (after permanent five members of the UNSC) to acquire the triad capability. By 2022, a fleet of four submarines named INS Arighat will join the fleet of Arihant.

                              Ins Arihant

However, there is a debate about the deterrence capability of INS Arihant. The government has not released any data, but as per various reports, there is a K-15 missile with a range of 750 km on board. If this is the case, then using it against China or Pakistan does not make sense as in such a short range, it needs to be deployed very close to their waters, making SSBN a target. A report says that India is developing a 3,500-km-range K4 missile, but Arihant does not have capability to carry it. India would need S4 and S-5 SSBN for K4 (3,500 km range) missile. The INS Arihant was developed by India in response to the Chinese nuclear-powered Jin class (JL-2 missiles) submarines. They have been visiting the Indian Ocean on the pretext of anti-piracy operations, raising alarm bells in India. Arihant will now sharpen the competition between powers in the Indian Ocean. Pakistan will seek Chinese help to build submarines. Coupled with Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, revival of the Quad of Democracies, it will only affect regional strategic stability and engender security dilemma. In complete absence of a nuclear level confidence building measures between India, China and Pakistan, it will only complicate the problem of strategic stability in the future.

It is important to remember that the INS Arihant has assured that India now possess a second strike capability (as t is impregnable against adversaries missile attack) and its development and induction has successfully ensured that it has followed what it stated in its nuclear doctrine, that is, build credible nuclear deterrent. It has finally ended the nuclear blackmail India is subjected to by its adversaries. The success of induction of Arihant signifies Indian mastery of complex systems and procedures that are entailed in operating a sea leg of the triad. The triad is a testimony to the technological prowess of India.

The main advantage of a nuclear-powered submarine, in contrast to a diesel-powered submarine, is that SSBN does not require battery charges and can operate underwater for a long period of time. If during a nuclear strike the adversary decapitates the air and land forces, then SSBN can be the opportunity of the last resort. The issue in Arihant is that the crew in the submarine is given the responsibility of the weapons on board with powers to launch them at a short notice if needed, which according to some weakens the civilian control of nuclear weapons in India. The Indian SSBN is designed with electronic switches called 'permissive action links', but still the ambiguity remains. However, it is important to remember that India remains committed to a verifiable, global, non-discriminatory disarmament and a nuclear weapons-free world. But, till the time nuclear weapons remain in the world, India will continue to use its deterrent capabilities for 'credible deterrence'. It is true that large military and nuclear capabilities cannot bequeath India with a tag of a 'Great Power', but a grand strategic vision that amalgamates military power with a doctrine of national security can advance its march towards such a status certainly.

After the Smiling Budha

In 1980, reports were going on that Pakistan acquired nuclear capability. The United Nations General Assembly, launched a Special Session on Disarmament (SSOD) in order to achieve global disarmament The first SSOD meet happened in 1978 and reaffirmed the need for disarmament. At the end of fi SSOD, the General Assembly established a Disarmament Commission comprising all UN members second SSOD happened in 1982 but failed to establish consensus despite an urgent need for disarmament The third SSOD in 1988 also failed to establish a consensus.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, head of state of Pakistan, acquired Saudi Arabian financing for nuclear weapon. The most important reason for Pakistan's going nuclear was India's already having done so.Pakistan perceived its nuclear capability as a bargaining chip in the Kashmir in future. Indira Gandhi in the Parliament accepted Pakistan's right to go nuclear but maintained that India had an edge on all aspects' over India had four options at that time:

1.Do covert operation and blow up Pakistani reactors

2.Strengthen cooperation with the USSR to contain Pakistan

3.Put pressure on Pakistan through international community to halt its ambition.

4.India produces own weapon

Indira Gandhi adopted a wait and watch policy. Though reports do suggest that she planned to test nuclear weapon in 1982, when the US satellites captured images of the nuclear test preparations by India, the idea was immediately dropped.

 In 1983, India launched the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) to establish five guided missiles (Nag, Trishul, Akash, Prithvi and agni), After India tested Prithvi. In 1988 the MTCR was established.

1974 Nuclear Test Smiling Budha:Things you need to know

India's nuclear program 

1972, India was established a plutonium reprocessing facility at Trombay that had generated a huge stock mile of plutonium which was weapon grade in nature. The operation of the Purnima reactor designed by the bhabha Atomic Research Centre had provided Indian scientists the data needed for designing ar explosive devices. The scientists pressed the government to grant permission to conduct a Nuclear explosion at the subterranean level for use in civil engineering purposes. The US and the USSR, during the Cold War period, conducted many PNEs. Indira Gandhi finally approved the PNES for Indian scientists in October 1972. One of the immediate factors that motivated Indira Gandhi to give the go-ahead for the ONE was the Bangladesh war. In the 1971 war, the US had sent the nuclear powered Enterprise Mission into the Bay of Bengal. After the visit of Henry Kissinger to China, he told the Indian Ambassador to Washington, L.K. Jha, that if there is an Indo-Pak war over East Pakistan and in case the Chinese intervene in the war to support Pakistan, the US would not be able to support India. Both these incidents were perceived by India as outright intimidation. 

Though no paper records exist for Indira Gandhi's decision to give a green signal for PNE, it is widely believed that this was one of the reasons that influenced her decision. Another reason was the continuous Chinese nuclear testing from 1964 onwards, which was certainly important in the security calculus of India.

     Indira Gandhi at time of first nuclear test

The core factors that influenced Indian decision-makers to make a decision in favour of the PNE in 1974 are 

1. Failure of security guarantee by the US,UK,USSR

2. Chines nuclear tests and security threats

3. USS Enterprise and nuclear intimidation.

4.US intimidation

After pokharan l,the US and Canada suspended support to India,in 1975 Nuclear Suppliers Group was formed to isolate India .In India emergency was emposed till 1980.